Renowned quantitative analyst PlanB is revealing what he thinks the end of this year will bring for Bitcoin, and how much longer the current crypto bull market can last.
In a new interview with Anthony Pompliano, the pseudonymous analyst known for being the first to apply the stock-to-flow (S2F) model to Bitcoin says that he’ll be caught off guard if BTC remains below the six-figure mark by the end of 2021.
“I would be very, very surprised if Bitcoin’s price would be below $100,000 at the end of the year. That would sort of invalidate my view, my models, and that would certainly surprise me. I do think we will see a price that is at least $135,000 by Christmas because that’s what my floor model says. Basically I’m using three kind of models that all say the same thing.”
PlanB says his three models are the S2F, which is traditionally used in the commodities markets to derive price based on the flow of supply, another model which utilizes on-chain signals, and lastly a floor model that aims to find the lowest possible price for Bitcoin.
“If we look at the on-chain signals right now, I would say that top is at least a couple of months, say six months from here, so that would be end of Q1 [of 2022], maybe later.”
The top end of PlanB’s S2FX model pins $288,000 for BTC at the peak of this cycle. However, the analyst suggests that a brief shot above that target before finally correcting is not impossible.
“I guess we will be above $100,000 [or] above $135,000 at the end of the year, and we’ll continue to grow maybe towards the S2FX model targets, $288,000 or even above. I would not be surprised even to see in Q1 or Q2 next year, prices of $300,000, $400,000, $500,000…”
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