BTC attempts to retest $50,000 as downside risk increases

    • Bitcoin price broke out of the falling wedge pattern on October 1 and rallied 10%.
    • Despite the initial bullishness, BTC is struggling to reach its intended target at $49,746.
    • A retracement to $44,893 is likely before the big crypto establishes a directional bias.

    Bitcoin price was consolidating as it trended lower since the September 6 swing high. Interestingly, this downswing resulted in the formation of a bullish pattern that broke out on October 1. The resulting rally pushed BTC through overhead barriers. However, the momentum needs to clear one more level for a continuation of this uptrend.

    Bitcoin price struggles to find a bias

    Bitcoin price set up two distinctive lower highs and three lower lows since August 26. Connecting these swing points using trend lines reveals the formation of a falling wedge. 

    This setup forecasts a 12% rally to $49,746, obtained by measuring the distance between the first swing high and swing low and adding it to the breakout point at $43,719.

    On October 1, Bitcoin price slashed the upper trend line of the falling wedge and sliced through $44,893 and is currently hovering inside the supply zone, ranging from $47,316 to $48,834.

    While an ideal local top would be to retest $50,000 and collect liquidity resting above the September 18 swing high at $48,834, Bitcoin price can prematurely reverse from its current position.

    Either way, a retracement to the $44,893 stable support floor. Here, the buyers can make another comeback but target the $50,000 and $53,000 barriers this time.

    BTC/USD 12-hour chart

    While a pullback to $44,893 seems likely, a failure to hold above will signal buyers’ weakness. In such a case, Bitcoin price could venture lower and retest $42,900.

    A decisive 12-hour candlestick close below this demand barrier will undo the gains and potentially invalidate the bullish thesis.

    Such a development will knock BTC down to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $41,126.


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