A survey conducted by the creator of the Bitcoin (BTC) stock-to-flow (S2F) price model reveals that most investors no longer believe that the flagship cryptocurrency will hit $100,000 this year.
The S2F model, traditionally applied to commodities like gold and silver, predicts the performance of an asset based on the idea that the price increases as asset becomes more scarce.
Using the S2F model, PlanB originally forecasted that BTC will breach the $100,000 level by the end of 2021. S2FX, a variation of S2F, predicted that the top crypto will breach $288,000 between 2021 and 2024.
A poll, which PlanB himself issued to his followers, shows that 40.7% of crypto investors believe that Bitcoin will stay below the six digit-level before December, 2021.
Do you think #bitcoin will reach $500K, $288K (S2FX model), $100K (S2F model), or will BTC stay below $100K .. before December 2021?
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 21, 2021
The bearish sentiment arrives as the price of Bitcoin remains below $40,000 following its late-May crash.
The dip was, according to crypto expert Su Zhu of Three Arrows Capital, instigated in part by billionaire Elon Musk’s remarks regarding BTC’s alleged negative environmental impact and the continued crackdown of crypto mining in China.
A similar survey conducted by PlanB before the market crashed shows that the majority of responders believed Bitcoin would hit $100,000 this year just three months ago.
What a difference 3 months make!
41% now thinks bitcoin will stay below $100K in 2021 (invalidating S2F model) vs 16% in March (when BTC was $55K). pic.twitter.com/S9PKR8FSnb
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 22, 2021
PlanB says the recent performance of BTC is putting his S2F model to the test.
“Even for me it is always a bit uneasy when Bitcoin price is at the lower bound of the stock-to-flow model. Will it hold (like March, 2019 when I published S2F, or March, 2020 Covid, or Septempber, 2020 with BTC stuck at $10,000) and is this another buying opportunity? Or will S2F be invalidated?”
Despite the rocky price action, the crypto analyst remains bullish on Bitcoin. A chart he shared to his over 590,000 followers on Twitter shows that even in a worst-case scenario, BTC will hit $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December.
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Featured Image: Shutterstock/Tithi Luadthong